Like the National Zoo’s panda cams, the Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ jobs report was a victim of the government shutdown.
Three sources give estimates on private hiring using different ways to arrive at their numbers.
Automatic Data Processing reported a gain of 166,000. Job search engine Bright.com said 164,000 jobs were added. While the Liscio report still has not made an official estimate, its survey “is consistent with another 150,000 increase in private employment.”
Trimtabs Investment Research said the total U.S. economy added 159,000. Using all four estimates and adjusting for government layoffs that have averaged 5,000 a month so far in 2013, total payrolls look to have grown by just 156,000 in September, far less than the 181,000 projected by economists.
Perceptions of the labor markets, however, offer a more positive spin for September, with one big exception.
Consumers clearly perceive job prospects were better in September than in August, a trend that suggests the jobless rate held at 7.3% or fell slightly.
The Conference Board reported more people last month thought jobs were “plentiful” and fewer thought jobs were “hard to get.” In the latest consumer poll done by the Royal Bank of Canada, the employment index rose to the highest level since October 2007 and the share of consumers who worry about losing a job fell to the lowest since the survey started in 2010.
Among businesses, though, sentiment is more mixed.
On the plus side, the drop in jobless claims means businesses are laying off fewer workers. On-line help-wanted advertising jumped in September, the Conference Board says. And the Institute for Supply Management‘s employment index for manufacturing showed an increase in factory hiring.
However, another ISM datapoint is the big exception to the demand for labor. The job index for non-manufacturers–mainly service providers but also the construction and public administration sectors–was unexpectedly weak in September. That is worrisome since non-manufacturers employ the lion’s share of U.S. workers.
It is unclear when the September payrolls report will be released. And if politicians don’t come to a budget agreement soon, the October payrolls survey could run into trouble.
What is important to keep in mind is that–for all the hoopla and market attention paid to it–the first print of the payrolls number is not the final word. The BLS revises data two months back. Then it conducts annual and benchmark revisions that can completely change what we thought we knew about the labor market.
For instance, when the BLS first reported only 88,000 jobs were created in March, it triggered fears of a spring slump. The twice-revised number now shows a more respectable 142,000 jobs added.
9 comments:
The main idea of the article "What Unemployment Would Have Been Like" is that, if the government shutdown was not currently taking place, the unemployment report for September would most likely have told us the United States added 156,000 jobs in the month. This was calculated through automatic data processing, Trimtabs investment research, and analysis of conference boards. Automatic data processing provided surveys with estimates that somewhere between 150,000 and 166,000 jobs were added. The Trimtabs investment research accounted for the fact that the estimated 156,000 jobs was 25,000 less than projected, and the jobless rate held, or perhaps fell slightly, for the month of September. Furthermore, through the conference board, we learned that the employment index rose to its highest level since October 2007, the share of consumers who worry about losing a job fell to its lowest since the survey started in 2010, businesses are laying off fewer workers, there is an increase in online help-wanted ads, and there is also an increase in factory hiring. What I get from all this information is simple: unemployment may be improving due to increased job opening and creation of new jobs, which provides consumers with increased income and more willingness to buy. Of course, this increases demand in the economy. However, this is a minor and subtle change at present. With the government shutdown at a standstill and payroll delayed for some workers, this improvement may be temporary.
-Kaitlyn Szilagyi
This article's main focus was to notify us that in September 156,000 jobs have been added to the labor market. Due to the partial government shutdown, the unemployment report was not issued. Three sources gave estimates on hiring and how they achieved their numbers. One of these sources was Automatic Data Processing, they stated that the United States economy added 159,000 jobs but with the subtraction of 5000 due to government lay offs. Although this number was far less than the 181,000 that economist projected, it was still slightly better than August. There has also been a drop in jobless claims and online help wanted advertisements have increased. Reviewing the information that both the Conference Board and Automatic Data Processing gave, the unemployment rate should be decreasing as more jobs flood the market. The Conference Board also stated that these jobs are plentiful and fewer people thought they were hard to get. This is good news for now but if this shutdown continues, next month may not have a complete different outcome especially since the amount 156,000 is just a speculation and not factual.
-Kevin Pereira
What I get from reading this post is that the numbers being reported should be taken with a grain of salt. Numbers are being thrown around that claim increases of 156,000 to 166,000 in terms of the amount of new jobs that are available. However, these numbers aren't from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Report, but are speculations based on information from private sources. While it is a good thing that the number of jobs are likely increasing, economists apparently projected a greater increase of 181,000 new jobs. This may seem like a cause for alarm, but it shouldn't be because the present numbers are only speculative. Even when the actual report for September does release, that too shouldn't be taken too seriously. According to the article, the first published number is generally not the actual amount. The BLS apparently revises two months backs which completely changes what we actually know about the past month’s state of the market. This means that the final numbers can be either smaller or larger than the first stated amount. This shows that time becomes the ultimate indicator for the market and it seems that we will always be lagging behind on our perceptions of how it is faring. Something that did concern me however, was when they mentioned that the job index for non-manufacturers in September was unexpectedly weak. But because this is based on a speculative report, I think it’s too early to make any absolute conclusions. Hopefully, the reports (once they are revised and up to date) will show a positive growth in the number of jobs and will give us a better outlook for our economy.
-Anthony Riccio
This article is about what the numbers for the unemployment report would be if the government shutdown had not occurred. Trimtabs Investment Research said the economy added 159,000 jobs and that total payrolls increased by 156,000 which was significantly less than the expected amount of 181,000. The perception for September labor markets are far better than those of August, but what people don't realize is that they are just perceptions and it's possible that the opposite could happen. More people are saying jobs are plentiful and less people are saying that jobs are scarce so things are looking up. The numbers are promising, but we need to keep in mind that unexpected events can occur.
-Brittani Muller
What would happen if the government was not shutdown? According to this article the unemployment rates have decreased and more jobs were provided. If the government wasn't shutdown, the report for september would have released information saying that there was 156,000 jobs that were added. I personally think if the government does not start back up again then there will be a collision in payroll from September to October. Even though this might be a problem, i am still glad to see that the unemployment rates are going down because at one point my father did not have a job for 2 years and it was hard to bounce back. There is always a good and bad side to something and hopefully the government gets back up and running so that more people will be able stay employed.
-Vincent Barbetto
What would happen if the government was not shutdown? According to this article the unemployment rates have decreased and more jobs were provided. If the government wasn't shutdown, the report for september would have released information saying that there was 156,000 jobs that were added. I personally think if the government does not start back up again then there will be a collision in payroll from September to October. Even though this might be a problem, i am still glad to see that the unemployment rates are going down because at one point my father did not have a job for 2 years and it was hard to bounce back. There is always a good and bad side to something and hopefully the government gets back up and running so that more people will be able stay employed.
-Vincent Barbetto
Due to the government shutdown, for the fist time in a very long while the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to put out an official unemployment report for the month of September 2013. However, Automatic Data Processing and Trim-tabs Investment Research both stated that 164,000 and 159,000 jobs were added to our economies respectively. It is surprising to me to see that although they calculated the government layoffs so far in 2013 that unemployment rates are still falling due to the new jobs being created. One not so positive note was that non-manufacturers, principally service providers along with the construction and public administration sectors had a noticeably weaker job index for the month of September. This is a scary fact considering that non-manufactureers do employ the majority of American people and the weak job index in this area is something that must change moving forward in the months to come.
-Michael Scalia
Due to the government shutdown, the unemployment report was not listed for September 2013. According to several private sources, 156,000 jobs have been added in September. Automatic Data Processing reported a gain of 166,000 jobs. Economists had 181,000 projected jobs for the month of September. The Conference Board reported more people last month thought jobs were “plentiful” and fewer thought jobs were “hard to get.” The importance of the article is that anywhere between 156,000 and 166,000 jobs have been added in September. This change as helped drop the unemployment rate as more and more people claim it is easier to find jobs.
-Kris Boyle
The main purpose of the article was to show that there were approximately 156000 jobs added in September. The article also shows the different estimates made by different sources of how much employment has increased. Even though the idea of the first 3-4 paragraphs of the article is on how employment has increased, it is a very general idea because it doesn't inform the reader what kinds of jobs have been added. Such information would be helpful in determining in what path is our economy going towards. For instance if the majority on the increase was in white collar jobs and a very little increase in middle class jobs one would be able to determine easily that the income distribution is not very fair in United States. The article does indicate that the job index for non manufacturing service providers, construction and public sectors was unexpectedly low as these sectors have employed majority of the U.S workers. I agree, this could be worrisome but it could also mean that other sectors are producing more jobs than they did before and people who weren't able to work the job they wanted before because of lack of vacancies might have a better chance now.
-Asfand Khan
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