Saturday, February 8, 2014

Both Wages and Employment are lagging.


’09’10’11’12’13’14+300+200+100-100Change in jobsIn thousands+113,000January
’09’10’11’12’13’146.57.07.58.08.59.0Unemployment rate6.6%January

For the more than 10 million Americans who are out of work, finding a job is hard. For the 145 million or so who are employed, getting a raise is even harder.
The government said on Friday that employers added 113,000 jobs in January, the second straight month of anemic growth, despite some signs of strength in the broader economy. The unemployment rate inched down in January to 6.6 percent, the lowest level since October 2008, from 6.7 percent in December.
But the report also made plain what many Americans feel in their bones: Wages are stuck, and barely rose at all in 2013. They were up 1.9 percent last year, or a mere 0.4 percent after accounting for inflation. Not only was that increase even smaller than the one recorded in 2012, it was half the normal rate of wage gains in the two decades before the last recession.
The stagnation helps explain why many people feel apprehensive even though the economy grew at a robust pace in the second half of 2013, corporate profits rose, the stock market boomed and the housing market continued to gain ground. The issue cuts across the American work force. In fact, white-collar workers did a bit worse than blue-collar workers last year in terms of wage growth.
“People are running in place in terms of their living standards,” said Ethan Harris, co-head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “There’s almost no growth in spending power.” As recently as 2008, when the economy sank deeper into recession and Lehman Brothers collapsed, wages still managed to rise by 3.5 percent, before inflation. But the combination of a backlog of workers left behind in the recession’s wake, as well as productivity gains resulting from new technologies, means salaries may not rebound anytime soon.

“We won’t see stronger wage growth until unemployment gets below 6 percent and we begin adding 200,000 jobs a month,” Mr. Harris predicted. Friday’s data from the Labor Department shows an economy performing well below that level, however. The 113,000 jobs that were added in January fell far short of the 180,000 economists had anticipated, and came after a particularly weak December. Despite the decline in the jobless rate, some economists said on Friday that job creation had indeed slowed, in what might be called a winter wobble for the economy — the cold weather equivalent of last year’s summer swoon.

Dean Maki, chief United States economist at Barclays, noted that over the course of November, December and January, the more reliable three-month pace of job creation stood at 154,000, roughly 75,000 positions fewer than employers added in September, October and November. Initially, the weak report for December was blamed on wintry conditions that inhibited hiring, but Mr. Maki said a second straight month of disappointing job gains led him to conclude that the cold and snow could not be blamed this time.

“I don’t think we can say weather affected January payrolls,” Mr. Maki said, noting that the construction sector, for example, bounced back in January after a weak showing in December. Nevertheless, Mr. Maki and most other economists said they did not believe the weak numbers for job creation in December and January would prompt the Federal Reserve to reverse course on its decision late last year to steadily reduce its stimulus efforts in 2014.

“This will get the Fed’s attention, but it won’t affect their trajectory,” Mr. Maki said. Still, another poor showing for hiring when the next employment report comes out in early March might prompt a pause among Fed policy makers at their meeting later that month, especially if other indicators show a parallel cooling.

Wall Street shrugged off the unemployment report on Friday, as bullish investors sent stocks higher, with market indexes finishing higher for the week after three straight weeks of losses. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 165.55 points, or 1.1 percent, to close at 15,794.08. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index gained 23.59 points, or 1.3 percent, finishing at 1,797.02. The Nasdaq surged by 68.74 points, or 1.7 percent, to 4,125.86.

In bond trading, the price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 5/32 to 100 18/32, while its yield dropped to 2.69 percent from 2.7 percent late Thursday.
One reason Wall Street may have looked on the bright side Friday is that the separate survey of households the Labor Department uses to calculate the unemployment rate told a different story from the payroll data survey. It showed a gain of more than 600,000 workers, helping bring down the unemployment rate.

In the payroll data survey for January, the public sector held back overall payrolls, as government employment shrank by 29,000 jobs in January. Excluding that loss, private employers added 142,000 positions, a slightly better showing. Several other sectors which had been strong in recent months — education and health care, as well as retail — also lost positions, contributing to the overall weakness.
The falloff in hiring in the health care sector was especially noteworthy. In December and January together, just 2,600 health care positions were filled. By contrast, as recently as November, nearly 25,000 health care workers were added to payrolls.

Although this area of the economy is undergoing a transformation as President Obama’s new health care plan is slowly introduced, that is unlikely to have caused the abrupt slowdown in hiring, said Mr. Harris, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist. If anything, he said, the law should create new jobs in the sector as health care coverage is expanded, even if higher costs for some employers result in job cuts elsewhere in the economy.

As for retail, which lost nearly 13,000 jobs in January, Mr. Harris said that some of the reduction could have been because of excess hiring in December, when stores added nearly 63,000 positions as the holiday shopping season peaked. The cuts may also have been spurred by weak results at some retailers, with chains like J. C. Penney announcing major job cuts last month, and Loehmann’s, the venerable discounter, now in liquidation.

The employment-population ratio, which has been falling as more workers drop out of the job market, edged up 0.2 percentage points, to 58.8 percent in January.

While salary gains have been muted across the work force, more educated workers continue to enjoy much better employment options than those with a high school degree or less. The unemployment rate for college graduates in January stood at just over 3 percent, compared to 6.5 percent for high school graduates and 9.6 percent for people who lack a high school diploma.

The problem for economic growth in general, and wage growth in particular, is that only one-third of the American work force — 50.4 million out of 155 million — have a college degree or more. By contrast, there are approximately 73 million workers who have a high school diploma or some college, and 11 million workers who did not finish high school.

With many less educated workers chasing a limited number of new jobs, employers have little reason to increase wages. “It’s just an extremely competitive environment for workers, where people have little negotiating power,” Mr. Harris said. 
(NYT Feb. 7, 2014)

19 comments:

Camille Dottore said...

This article discusses that wages and employment are at a standstill. There are millions of people who can’t find jobs and also millions of people that also can’t get raises. According to Mr. Harris, we won’t see any wage growth until the unemployment rates is below 6 percent, which is adding 200,000 jobs a month. In retail, many people were hired during the holiday seasons, increasing the number of jobs for people. As the holiday seasons came to an end, people were cut off and left with no job. A major problem for unemployment and wages is that only 1/3 of Americans have a college degree resulting in many individuals not being able to find a job. The other 2/3 with high school diplomas or not even graduating high school altogether, struggle to find jobs. With all of these uneducated people trying to find jobs, it’s a very big competition. In my opinion people should start attending college and getting a degree, so it will be easier for these individuals to get a career that will support them in the future.

Marc Pasquale said...

As of now, unemployment and wages are not exactly the best thing. And I think that something drastic needs to be done. There are so many people without jobs, and for the ones that actually have jobs, are in desperate need for a raise that will probably never come. This is a major problem. On top of that, it is incredibly hard to get a job. Not only do people not have degrees, but people lack the skills in order to get a job, which is another huge problem. But, for the ones that do, there are just simply no jobs available. In this time, and in this economy, it is crucial for individuals to obtain a job that way they can support themselves and their families. I think the steps that need to be taken involve creating new jobs, which is mostly the governments aspect, and for us as individuals, we need to make sure we have the correct sills in order to get the jobs that will be created. This way, wages and employment would no longer be at a standstill.

Stephanie White said...

"Running in place", is exactly how I would describe not only the people in the workforce not receiving raises, but the economy itself as a whole. According to a lot of people the economy has been shaping up and doing better, but I may be a little in disbelief. I think things being done to pull us out of this economic downward spiral, may have consequences in the future that will land us right where we were to start off. I hope I am wrong, just my opinion. What I got from this article, is that they created jobs for thousands of people, meanwhile others working did not receive the raise they should have. Like I stated earlier, I believe everything has its own consequence. I do not know what the right thing to do is, or what may help us. If thousands of people who do this for a living cannot figure it out, how should I know? However, I do know that we have a long road ahead of us. Getting America on its own two feet again, and I mean really on its own two feet, is going to take a lot of trial and error and time. There is not going to be an easy fix. I am a fulltime commuting student, working fulltime as well. I think people should try to advance their education as much as they can, and work as hard as they can until they can't anymore. I think a lot of people are sitting home, collecting money from the government for their ten children, I think some people who are unemployed are sitting around feeling bad for themselves, and I think a lot of other people think the world owes them something, which it does not. I feel terrible for the people who are working hard every day, and are deserving of the raises they aren't receiving, and the people who are constantly job hunting. America is doing better on paper, but how are we all doing as human beings. I hope our economy, stated to be moving toward the right direction, stays moving in that direction. America is all about competition, and whoever says it is easy or fair, hasn't needed to compete yet.

Unknown said...

This article discusses that wages and employment have not been as positive or beneficial to our economic problems. Since the recession back in 2008, our economy has been trying to pick itself back up again. There has been a lot of inflation and deflation of many goods and service needed in our community. This is not the only problem our economy is facing. Since the recession the job market has been horrible and more workers are being laid off rather than companies hiring new employees. This is leading the government to test out new agencies or institutions in order to create more jobs for each individual. I believe for now it is best if you do not have a job to keep searching. Our economy has been running on a boom and bust system for years. 2008 was a bust year but slowly the economy will reach its boom and the cycle will start all over again.

Ashleen Ulysse said...

The unemplyment rate is slowly declining but there are still so many Americans who can't find employment. Americans can't find jobs because only 1/3 of Americans actually have a college degree and we can't get degrees because our parents cannot afford the mindblowing tuition in order to reciee an education. The reason parents cannot afford tuition is because they don't have jobs and the vicious cylce continues until something is done about the employment and wage situation. For those who do find employment are in desperate need for a raise to over-ride the increase in inflation and they find themselves at a dead end due to employers adding new jobs rather than paying current employees more money. I feel that the issue of unemplyment will never go away, our economy has been up and down for ages and nobody can figure out what the right answer to the equation is.

Anthony Zullo said...

The big economic crisis of todays day in age is unemployment and wages not being gained throughout the year. In other words, millions of people around America are struggling to get raises above 3%. Other than the struggle of employees getting raises, millions of other Americans cant find jobs. Its believed that the only way pay raises will raise dramatically if less than 6% of America is unemployed. That translates to about 200,000 jobs a month gained. A major factor to the rise and gain of unemployment each year is the seasonal hiring. During the holiday season more staff is needed so more people are hired but toward the off holiday months more workers are left without a job than ever. Most employment numbers come from low paying jobs that can take in non qualfied indiviuals to obtain a job in a low working field. The problem in the United States is that 1 out of 3 Americans have a college degree leaving only them qualified for many big time job oppuritinites leaving 66% of people at a disadvantage. I understand colleges need to make a profit and it cost alot to keep good colleges flowing but I would suggest tuition to decrease dramatically to give more kids an oppurunity to go through school. Many people who dont go to college are scared they will be in huge debt by the time they are out or believe they still wont get a job. If those kind of questions get reduced a higher outcome of college students will arise.

Bakhoya Mangoli said...

The economy has not yet picked up to a point that workers feel comfortable. Most of the jobs that increased in November and December were due t the holiday season. Most of these part time workers had their employment over at the end of the holidays (January 31, 2014). So we are going to see more people looking for jobs from this month.
This is a very competitive time where education is paramount. The more education you have the better chances of landing a job. I would encourage anyone who has no job to endeavor to go back to school and acquire a higher education.
I am not sure how the Medicare plan will work because I have seen people on television complaining that their premiums have gone up with obamacare compared to their old medical policies.
The union movement in America is very weak these days so employers do what they want to do because there are no checks and balances.

Tiffany Pabon said...

Unfortunately the nation is enduring a substantial amount of unemployment and a standstill in raises. The unemployment rate is above 6 percent. The jobs in the private sector luckily have grown by 142,000 but the amount of government jobs has declined by 29,000. The problem is that the work force we have does not put a drive in employers to give wage increases because only about a third of the workforce has a college degree or higher. This leaves little negotiating power to the employees to get a raise. If there are jobs available there also is not only the problem that the person doesn't have a degree but also that they aren't qualified because they might not have the skills required or the experience.

Maria Galatas said...

The title of this blog is that both wages and employment are lagging, which is completely true. If observing the two graphs it shows that there has been more than 300 thousand changes in jobs along with an unemployment rate dropping substantially; 9.0 to 6.5. Since 2008 workers are still finding it hard to find jobs, most employers are making it difficult to hire people along with laying many of them off. The government tried to add more jobs to the job market to try and help lower the unemployment rate. They added 113,000 jobs, but in the long run it still isn’t enough to help both the wages and employment situations.

Maria Bueti said...

Even though there are signs of the economy getting better it will take a long time for people to get benefits from it. The creation of jobs will hopefully help with the unemployment rate and possibly bring some discouraged workers back into looking for work. I find it interesting how “wintry conditions” have played a role in the economy as well. It does make sense that it is difficult for people to get out and buy things especially because of the snow that has hit us in some way at least once a week. This makes sense with the sales being down in January. But sales being down in January can also be from people spending too much during the holiday season in December therefore they are cutting back these next few months. I don’t see how the weather can affect job creation or payrolls for the month and according to Mr. Maki he doesn’t believe that it affected payrolls either.

Nasha Bell said...

This article has expressed that unemployment is still one of the biggest problems we have in the U.S. today. The article has expressed that we won't be in good standing until unemployment is under 6 percent and we are only going to see that happen by adding 200,000 jobs per month according to Mr.Harris. It is very hard to get a job nowadays because you need a college degree for everything now. Only 1/3 of Americans have their college degree while the other 2/3 either have their high school diploma or have nothing at all. Many stores are stable and only need help seasonal and that helps people but once the season is over they cut so many people and they are back to square one which is not helping at all. Since our outlook on education seems to be low bosses will not increase wages for the people who have jobs so they can never higher their standard of living. Unemployment will remain a problem until we see an increase in the workforce.

Nicole Smith said...

The article states that unemployment has gone down because the number of available jobs has increased. However the number of available jobs did not go up as much as expected. People are at a standstill when it comes to wages. The article states that we will not see an increase in wages until unemployment is below 6 percent and 200,000 jobs are added to the economy every month. It will be interesting to see how an increase in minimum wage to ten dollars will affect the amount of jobs and the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate for college graduates in January was just over 3 percent. High school graduates have an unemployment rate of 6.5 percent. Those who lacked a high school degree are at 9.6 percent unemployment rate. I would say that the easy way to fix this issue is to teach people skills that could help them get a job, but that will be hard to do if the job availability is not there. Retail jobs that were created during the holiday season are now being cut. Some businesses will cut their job positions because they are not doing well. Unemployment will continue to be an ongoing economical battle.

Unknown said...

This article discusses the current problem with employment and wages. Both of these seem to be at a standstill and it is hard to see when in the future they will improve. The article discusses how about 200,000 jobs need to be added per month to get the unemployment rate back on track, however not nearly enough are currently being added each month. Besides not having enough jobs, another big issue seems to be that many people do not hold the education needed for many of the jobs being made available. More and more jobs are becoming more competitive and require higher levels of educations. Only about one third of Americans hold college degrees. For the rest, they are suffering because they cannot find work suitable for them with their minimal education. Another great issue occurs because wages aren't increasing enough to keep up with inflation and it is getting much harder for workers to get suitable raises. When raises are given, they are low and cannot keep up with the rate of inflation. Both of these problems, unemployment and wages, will continue to be in a constant struggle until we can find a solution. More jobs must be made available to help stimulate the economy and get it back on track.

Marina Milos said...

It seems that both unemployment and wages are major problems that the United States will have to deal with. On Friday, the government reported that employers added 113,000 jobs in January. This number may seem like a huge increase, however the number reported fell far short of the 180,000 economists had anticipated. Co-head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted, "we won't see stronger wage growth until unemployment gets below 6 percent and we begin adding 200,000 jobs a month". However, will there ever be a solution to such a staggering issue? What it looks like, there doesn't seem to be a solution that will fix the problem as a whole. Just the other day I read another article having to do with the unemployment in America, "Continued mass unemployment will, moreover push workers' wages even lower. Meanwhile, big business can continue to amass a cash hoard, already at $1.5 trillion, and use it to speculate and buy more and bigger mansions and yachts rather than invest in manufacturing and production, rebuild the country's infrastructure, and hire the unemployed." This problem is a crucial issue that has been effecting Americans all over the country, and soon needs to be resolved.

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/02/11/pers-f11.html

Rachel Andal said...

Unemployment and wages are among the biggest problems facing America. just as the article described that minimum wage has not increased due to the increase of available individuals for positions that become competitive , therefore employers have no reasons to increase wages. With unemployment, college graduates are among the highest in the population who are unemployed. According to another article , Class of 2013: All Dressed Up and no Place to Work, Parramore discusses: "In a paper , The Class of 2013, researchers at the Economic Policy Institute showed that young people are not searching in vain for jobs because they lack the appropriate skills or the right education, as many pundits would have it. Rather, they can’t find work because of the weak demand for goods and services. It's actually very simple: when a company can’t sell its goods and services because customers don’t have enough money to spend, it can’t hire more workers. You can be Super-Skilled Super Student, and if the economy isn't humming, you'll have trouble ." As the economy has decreases, there is a lack of goods to sell which then leads to firing of many workers who then become unemployed or even due to over hiring during holidays. One solution is to create more jobs especially for those only who have college degrees in order to combat unemployment.

Source: http://www.alternet.org/education/college-graduates-and-unemployment

Will Harrington said...

There is no doubt that in today's world, getting a job is hard and getting a raise is even more difficult. It seems as though wages are at a standstill as wage increases are becoming smaller and smaller. Some say the lack of wage increases is due to the unemployment rate which would need to decrease in order to raise wages of workers. With unemployment at an all time high, it doesn't seem like such wage increases will occur anytime soon. Although wage increases are at a standstill, those workers with a college degree continue to have much better work options those with only a high school diploma or none at all. With the competitive work force we live in, it is extremely important to further one's education as much as possible to have the competitive edge over others who are about to join the work force.

Unknown said...

Many others including myself sit here and question the restructure of out economy after our latest recession in 2008, after reading this article which further explains that progression is being achieved but lacks in benefits toward the employed. An estimated 145 Million people are struggling to get raises above 3%, In addition to the struggle of employees gaining raises, 10 million of other Americans cant find jobs. Being that this is the technology era many jobs required less employes which is understandable that of which May effect more jobs into the future. Its understood that the only way promotions will increase severely is if unemployment gets less than 6%. That converts to an extended 200,000 jobs per month. In relation to the issue of employment a lot of it is intertwined with the statue of education, roughly about one third of Americans hold college degrees. For the rest, they are struggling because they cannot find work fitting for them with their lack of education. For those workers with a college degree will be more eligible for work options rather then those with only a high school diploma or none at all. Both of these issues unemployment and wages, will continue to be in a constant struggle until we reach our +6% goal. And also jobs must be made available to help regain the economy's original structure.


-Devendra Mohan

Marlon H said...

This article tells us about the decline in employment and the problem with wages in this country. There are a lot of unemployed Americans who can't seem to find any jobs. It says in the article that there are 200,000 new jobs a month needed for the unemployment rate to go below 6 percent and to fix the unemployment problem. One of the issues why so many people are still unemployed is the lack of education that those people possess. More jobs now have stiff competition and require a higher level of education. Another issue is the inflation rate. The wages offered to workers do not seem to keep up with the inflation rate. We need to find a solution to these problems and soon.

Dina Carbone said...

This article speaks about why people are dealing with the problems and troubles of unemployment. Unfortunately we seem to be at a stand still with the employment rates and wages. A lot of people are struggling to find a job, keep a job, and progressing n the job by receiving appropriate raises. It has been proven that people with a college degree are more likely to find a job then someone with just a high school degree or no degree. If people were able to attain a level education maybe at a easier cost, unemployment rates would go down. More college graduates would have the ability to find jobs through career services colleges provide and have a higher degree of education to benifit the future employer, which will then find it necessary to keep you as an employee.